El Kabeir Favorite in Withers Stakes

After taking a weekend off at the end of January, the Road to the 2015 Kentucky Derby makes two stops this weekend. In the West, the Robert B. Lewis (G2) will be run at Santa Anita, and in the east the Withers Stakes (G3) will go at Aqueduct. The Zayat Stable star, El Kabeir, will be a big favorite in New York as he looks to add another 10 points to his already leading Kentucky Derby points total of 21.

El Kabeir comes to the $250,000 Withers with a big edge in experience over the rest of the seven horse field. The son of Scat Daddy will be making his seventh career start, from which he already has won three times including graded stakes wins in his two most recent races. In November, trainer John Terranova sent his colt to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and then came back to New York to take the Jerome (G3) last month.

Since the Withers’ distance was increased to a mile and a sixteenth, and moved to its current spot on the New York Derby Trail, the winners have qualified for the Run for the Roses. In 2014, Samraat finished fifth in the Derby, Revolutionary hit the board with a third in 2013, and in 2012, Alpha was 12th at Churchill Downs.

El Kabeir [PP7 – ML 8-5 - John Terranova – CC Lopez] is the only horse in the field to have a win beyond the maiden ranks. Classly Class [PP1 – ML 2-1 - Kiaran McLaughlin – Irad Ortiz, Jr.] broke his maiden at Belmont Park in October at first asking and followed that with a fourth place finish in the Remsen (G2), in October, which earned one Derby qualifying point. General Bellamy [PP6 – ML 15-1 - Bill Mott – Junior Alvarado] needed three tries until he broke his maiden at Aqueduct in November. A third place finish in January’s Jerome brought him two Derby points. This son of Bellamy Road gets first time Lasix.

The rest of the field is making their first start since breaking their maiden. Far From Over [PP2 – ML 5-1 - Todd Pletcher – Manuel Franco] was a first time maiden winner on the Aqueduct inner track in December. Tencendur finished third in that race going two turns. March [PP3 – ML 6-1 - Chad Brown – Jose Ortiz] is another inner track winner, who like Far From Over is a son of Blame and was last ridden to victory by Irad Ortiz. Irad has opted to ride Classy Class for Kiaran McLaughlin for whom he usually rides first call in major stakes races.

Tencendur [PP4 – ML 12-1 - George Weaver – Cornelio Velasquez] found the winner’s circle in his second try in a New York-bred race. Unrivaled [PP5 – ML 20-1 - Marya Montoya – Frankie Pennington] needed five tries before winning a maiden at Parx Racing by 15 lengths. Unrivaled was claimed for $30,000 in his third start.

El Kabeir figures to be an overwhelming betting favorite in the Withers come post time at 4:13pm ET and rightfully so. His two most recent Beyer Speed Figures of 95 and 94 tower over the rest of the field which does not have a recent BSF above the 79 that Far From Over and Unrivaled got in their most recent starts. El Kabeir has more experience and an enormous class advantage with his two graded stakes wins.

"Physically he's getting stronger, but he's also maturing mentally," said El Kabeir’s trainer, Terranova. "He rated off the pace [in the Jerome] and he relaxed beautifully. Earlier in his career, he wouldn't do that, but he just needed to grow up. Based on his performance to date and the way he's gone forward, I expect a big effort from him. He's a determined racehorse, both mentally and physically focused."

Classy Class had an impressive first time maiden victory in October at Belmont Park that got an 88 BSF and later he did run a respectable race in the Remsen. He did not miss any training after the Remsen and stayed in New York.  I expected him to have run since November, so I am not sure how to interpret the two-plus months without a race.

McLaughlin's assistant, Art Magnuson explained, "We absolutely think he wants two turns. [The Remsen] was only his second start; we went from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles - that's a lot to ask - and he ran very well. We were very pleased with his race. He was ready for the Jerome but we had a bit of an unlucky hiccup; we can't wait for the Withers. He's [still eligible for a non-winners of one], but he can run with this kind."

Far From Over did nothing wrong in his hard fought maiden victory. This one is out of an AP Indy mare and was a $550,000 Keeneland yearling purchase. He ships up from Pletcher’s Florida base at Palm Beach Downs.